Carbon (CO2) emissions are calculated for local authority areas by DECC. These have been reported since 2005 – the baseline year – and are measured in thousands of tonnes (kT) of CO2. In 2005, Island carbon emissions were 830 kT. Industry and commerce accounted for 339.5 kT; the domestic sector for 346 kT and transport for 144 kT. Using a mid-year population estimate of 137,900 this equates to 6.0 tonnes per capita (per person). In the Local Area Agreement, the Island has set a carbon reduction target of 12% over the period 2008 -11 (i.e. average reduction of 4% p.a.) which equates to 98,880 tonnes. ‘National’ measures – e.g. improvements to building regulations, improved fuel efficiency of new cars etc – are expected to provide savings of 7% over this period, leaving a further 5% to be found locally. Local activity therefore needs to reduce carbon emissions by 41,200 tonnes from the 2005 baseline. Because this is a per capita indicator, an adjustment should be made for population. If the expected population growth is realised, then the carbon reduction requirement will be 62,983 tonnes, with 26,242 tonnes to be found from local measures. Business as usual carbon emissions for the Island are predicted to rise (from the 2005 baseline) by 18,000 tonnes by 2010 and 79,000 tonnes by 2026. Population increases and commercial growth drive emissions upwards whilst the replacement of older housing stock with new homes built under much more stringent building regulations will reduce emissions in the domestic sector. The growth in emissions is, to some extent, mitigated by the increasing proportions of renewable energy sources in the national electricity mix. The underlying trend is still upwards and this must be reversed and sent on a downwards trajectory if local carbon emission targets are to be met. Click here for further information on Island carbon emissions
CO2 emission data is now released by DECC and is currently 18 months in arrears. Data for 2009 was released in September 2011 and, contrary to the Business As Usual trend, actually shows a fall in Island emissions from 829,500 tonnes (6.0t per capita) in 2005 to 686,100 tonnes (4.9t per capita) in 2009, a reduction of 143,400 tonnes. This represents a reduction of 17% on baseline emissions which is, on average, just over 4% per year. The breakdown of emissions sources shows the most significant reduction in the industrial / commercial and domestic sectors, with less movement in the transport sector.
Data for 2010 (released in August 2012) shows an increase in per capita carbon emissions for the first time in many years. The Island figure is 5.3t CO2 per capita. The largest increases were in domestic and industrial and commercail gas usage, suggesting that the increase is, in part, due to the cold winter. The most significant current local initiative, the Island Insulation Scheme, has the potential to deliver 3,991 tonnes carbon savings to 31.12.12, if the full allocation of 8,950 cavity wall and loft insulation measures is taken up. Click here for further details of the Island Insulation Scheme. Click here for ideas on reducing your carbon footprint .
It is widely recognised that cuts of 80% in carbon emissions are required by 2050 in order to avoid the most serious impacts of climate change. Clearly much more work is required to plan for such deep carbon cuts.