LEARNING
SELECT COMMITTEE
Date: 2
DECEMBER 2002
Title: KEY
STAGE 1, 2, 3, 4 AND POST 16 RESULTS 2002
REPORT
OF THE DIRECTOR OF EDUCATION AND COMMUNITY
1.
When considering headline data both in relation to
individual schools and the Authority the following contextual factors need to
be recognised.
·
The pupil population in one year (cohort) is
statistically on the margin of reliability 1400-1600 pupils – approximately 14
–16 pupils = 1%
·
High school – 200 – 340 pupils in a year – approximately 2 –
4 pupils = 1%
·
Middle school – 30 –135 pupils in a year – 1 pupil can
represent between 15 – 3%
·
Primary school – 5 – 65 pupils in a year – 1 pupils can
represent between 1.5% - 20%
2.
Single year results must be treated with extreme
caution. The most valid data is for trends over time. It is normal to look at a
three-year or longer trend. Individual year variation is usual and may relate
to variation in the cohort ability year on year.
The most
valid data set is that which shows value added for individuals or groups of
pupils over time. For example the progress made from Key stage 1 to Key stage 2
or GCSE to A level.
Other
factors that may affect school performance include:
The
proportion of pupils with special educational needs in any one cohort.
The
socio-economic advantage or disadvantage in the pupils background. Some Island
wards have high levels of disadvantage on national indices of deprivation.
The amount
of turbulence (the number of pupils who leave or come into a cohort in a year)
in any one cohort. Island turbulence is usually between 12% - 20% of the
cohort.
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 2 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
83 |
84 |
84 |
|
LEA % |
85 |
87 |
84 |
Writing:
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 2 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
84 |
89 |
86 |
|
LEA % |
87 |
89 |
88 |
Spelling:
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 2 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
68 |
72 |
78 |
|
LEA % |
64 |
71 |
77 |
Mathematics:
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 2 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
90 |
91 |
90 |
|
LEA % |
91 |
94 |
92 |
Note:
The achievement of National
Curriculum Level 2 or better is the expected performance for pupils of average
or above ability by Year 2 (age 7) of the Primary school.
Commentary:
The 2002 results for the
national tests for seven year olds show a sustaining of improvement in reading,
writing and mathematics. Significant improvement has been achieved in spelling
and the educational development plan (EDP) target for 2004 has been met. They
are broadly in line with the national average in reading and spelling and above
in writing and mathematics. There is no significant difference in the
performance of boys or girls.
The results compare
favourably with the Authority’s statistical neighbours, other Authorities in
the South East Region and Authorities with a three phase system. In respect of
the South East Region results in reading and spelling are broadly in line with
the region's average and those for writing and mathematics are above.
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 4 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
75 |
75 |
74 |
|
LEA % |
75 |
70 |
73 |
|
LEA Target |
|
81 |
82 |
Mathematics:
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 4 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
72 |
71 |
73 |
|
LEA % |
66 |
67 |
71 |
|
LEA Target |
|
69 |
70 |
Science:
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 4 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
85 |
87 |
86 |
|
LEA % |
85 |
91 |
91 |
Note:
The achievement of National
Curriculum Level 4 or better is the expected performance for pupils of average
or above ability by Year 6 (age 11) of the Middle school.
Targets are not required for
Science.
Commentary:
The 2001 results for the
national tests for eleven year olds are show improvement over 2001 in English
and mathematics and a sustaining of high standards in science.
English has recovered
three points from the 2001 position but is not yet at the 2000 average. Overall
the English performance is just below the national average and the average for
the South East Region. The EDP target for 2002 was not met. A significant
weakness exists in writing and the gap between reading performance, which at
84% is above the national average and in line with that of the South East
Region, and writing performance is twice the national average of 15%. Girls
significantly outperform boys.
Mathematics shows a three
year trend of continuing improvement, though just below the national and South
East Region averages the EDP target was met and the gap between Island and
national performance is being closed. The gap between the performance of boys
and girls has been closed.
In science the high
standards achieved in 2001 have been sustained. Island performance is well
above that nationally and in the South East Region. There is no significant
difference between the performance of boys or girls.
The results of the 2002
cohort show a positive value added performance from Key Stage 1 to Key Stage 2
in reading but a negative performance in writing. Mathematics displays a
neutral value added performance and science displays a positive value added
performance.
In all areas other than
writing and science results compare with the median for the Authority’s
statistical neighbours, other Authorities in the South East Region and
Authorities with a three phase system. In science they are amongst the highest
in relation to the same comparators and in writing they are the lowest.
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 5 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
63 |
64 |
66 |
|
LEA % |
60 |
57 |
57 |
|
LEA Target |
|
|
62 |
Mathematics:
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 5 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
65 |
66 |
67 |
|
LEA % |
63 |
64 |
64 |
|
LEA Target |
|
|
68 |
Science:
Pupils achieving National
Curriculum Level 5 or above
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
National % |
59 |
66 |
66 |
|
LEA % |
59 |
55 |
63 |
|
LEA Target |
|
|
61 |
Note:
The
achievement of National Curriculum Level 5 or better is the expected
performance for pupils of average or above ability by Year 9 (age 14) of the
High school.
Commentary:
The 2002 results for the
national tests for fourteen year olds are overall disappointing in English and
mathematics. Science has displayed an improved performance. In both English and
mathematics there has been no improvement on the 2001 position. The gap between
Island performance and that of the national and South East Region averages has
widened.
Girls significantly
outperform boys in English and there is, as at key Stage 2, a significant
weakness in writing. This now begins to affect Key Stage 3 performance in
science and in the long term GCSE performance at the end of Key stage 4. The
EDP target for English has not been met
The trend in mathematics
is very much a flat line against an improving national and South East region
trend. However, the gap between boy and girl performance has been closed. The
EDP target for mathematics has not been met.
In science some
improvement is evident and the EDP target has been met. There is no significant
difference between the performance of boys and girls.
The results of the 2002
cohort, as with 2001, display a negative value added performance from Key Stage
2 to Key Stage 3 in English, mathematics and science.
The
results are amongst the lowest in English when compared with the Authority’s
statistical neighbours, other Authorities in the South East Region and
Authorities with a three phase system. For mathematics and science they are in
the lower quartile.
The Key
Stage 3 EDP targets, agreed with the DfES for 2004 will require substantial
improvement in the performance of English, mathematics and science.
2004 targets for pupils achieving Level 5 or above:
English 72%
Mathematics 74%
Science 71%
Information and Communications Technology (ICT) 74%
* KEY STAGE 4 ISLE OF WIGHT LEA and NATIONAL RESULTS 2001
YEAR 11 STUDENTS (aged 16 at 1.9.2002)
GCSE
|
|
|
Number |
Achieving 5+ A*-C % |
Achieving 5+ A*-G % |
Achieving 1+ A*-G % |
Achieving No Passes (A*-G) % |
|
Total |
LEA |
1453 |
45 |
91 |
96 |
4 |
|
|
National |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LEA Target 2002 |
51 |
- |
98 |
2 |
||
|
+National Targets 2002 |
50 |
|
95 |
5 |
||
* These statistics are
for comprehensive schools nationally and the Isle of Wight High Schools.
Special schools are excluded.
Commentary:
The information
is based upon that collated for the 2002 secondary school performance
tables. The local LEA data and schools
data is taken from the NCER data pack.
The national data is currently in the process of being checked by
schools and the final results will not be confirmed until the final publication
on 3 December.
Key points to note are:
·
45% of High school students gained 5+ A*-C at GCSE or the
GNVQ equivalent. This represents a 1% improvement upon 2001, narrowing the gap
between the Island and performance for similar schools nationally to 3%.
·
Girls continue to out-perform boys particularly at the
higher grades (A*-C) where the difference is for the LEA is significantly
higher than that nationally and in comparison to our statistical neighbours.
·
On the three key measures of 5+ A*-C, 1+ A*-G and average
points score there is still significant improvement to be made both locally and
nationally.
POST 16 RESULTS - A/AVCE/AS Level *
|
Entry Data |
Island |
National |
|
2+ A/AVCE/AS – students |
465 |
|
|
A/AVCE/AS - total entries –
students |
481 |
|
|
A/AVCE/AS - Pass Data |
|
|
|
3+ A/AVCE/AS Passes % of entry
cohort |
77 |
|
|
2+ A/AVCE/AS Passes % of entry
cohort |
97 |
|
|
1+ A/AVCE/AS Passes % of entry
cohort |
98 |
|
|
No A/AVCE/AS Passes % of entry
cohort |
2 |
|
|
Pass Rates |
|
|
|
A level % Pass rate |
96 |
|
|
AVCE % Pass rate |
94 |
|
|
% Pass rate A-E - A/AVCE |
95 |
94 |
|
% Pass rate A-B - A/AVCE |
34 |
|
|
% Pass rate A-C - A/AVCE |
59 |
|
|
Points Score |
|
|
|
Av. Pts. Score for 2+ A/AVCE/AS |
232 |
|
|
Av. Pts. Score for fewer than 2+
A/AVCE/AS |
28 |
|
Note:
2002 represented the first year
results of a new Post 16 examination system. Overall comparison with previous
years are not directly applicable. The system also saw the introduction of a
new UCAS accumulative point scoring structure across all Post 16 accreditation.
Final national data not available
until 3 December.
Commentary:
The
relatively small size of the Isle of Wight cohort means that this data needs to
be treated with caution. The statistics
shown are for comprehensive schools. As
with the GCSE results girls out-perform boys and the gap is greater for the LEA
results than the national figure. The
overall 95% A-E A/AVCE pass rate was above the national rate. The Island A
level pass rate increased by 6% from that of 2002.
At Post 16 the Island results
compare favourably with those nationally, the South East Region and with the
Authority's statistical neighbours.
Note:
Throughout this paper all % values
have been rounded up or down to the nearest whole figure.
Results at Key stages 1, 2 and 3
are validated and final. At Key stage 4 and Post 16 they are still provisional,
as final validated national figures have not yet been released.
Background papers:
Isle of Wight EDP
Isle of Wight 2001 Key Stage 2
Performance Tables
DfEE Autumn Package
IfD data analysis software
NCER Data Package
National Statistics - DfEE
Contact point:
Keith Simmonds – Senior Inspector – 823405
DAVID
PETTITT
Strategic
Director Of Education and Community Development